The efficient markets theory reached the height of its dominance in academic circles around
the 1970s. Faith in this theory was eroded by a succession of discoveries of anomalies, …

It appears that speculative asset prices tend to show excess volatility relative to simple
present value efficient markets models, and that prices are partly forecastable as tending to …

… economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller, the case for … In this book, acclaimed economists
George Akerlof and Robert Shiller … Akerlof and Shiller reassert the necessity of an active …

A dividend-ratio model is introduced here that makes the log of the dividend-price ratio on a
stock linear in optimally forecast future one-period real discount rates and future one-period …

… In Campbell and Shiller 2, we presented considerable evidence that in practice the error is
… We treat the parameter ρ as fixed, and set it equal to 0.936 following Campbell and Shiller 2…

I will start this lecture with some general thoughts on the determinants of long-term asset
prices such as stock prices or home prices: what, ultimately, drives these prices to change as …

… The Case-Shiller indexes are the best available for our purposes, and wherever possible …
-sales method of Case and [End Page 304] Shiller), 10 their indexes are in part based on …

A simple model that is commonly used to interpret movements in corporate common stock.
price indexes asserts that real stock prices equal the present value of rationally expected or …

… Yale University Professor Robert Shiller pretty much called the stock market … Shiller describes
the psychological origins of volatility, among other things. And in the newest edition, Shiller …

… Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on these questions over the
last dozen years. It contains reprints of major papers with new interpretive material for those …