This paper examines the magnitude of informational problems associated with the implementation
and interpretation of simple monetary policy rules. Using Taylor's rule as an example, …

We examine the reliability of alternative output detrending methods, with special attention to
the accuracy of real-time estimates of the output gap. We show that ex post revisions of the …

I estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for the Federal Reserve for
the periods before and after Paul Volcker's appointment as Chairman in 1979, using …

We present a theory of rational behavior in which individuals maximize a set of stable preferences
over goods with unknown addictive power. The theory is based on three fundamental …

The natural rate is an abstraction; like faith, it is seen by its works. One can only say that if
the bank policy succeeds in stabilizing prices, the bank rate must have been brought in line …

This study examines the usefulness of the Taylor-rule framework as an organizing device
for describing the policy debate and evolution of monetary policy in the United States. …

This study investigates the implications of noisy information regarding the measurement of
economic activity for the evaluation of monetary policy. Using a simple model of the US …

We perform an empirical investigation of the macroeconomic consequences of international
terrorism and interactions with alternative forms of collective violence. Our analysis is based …

In recent years, activist monetary policy rules responding to inflation and the level of economic
activity have been advanced as a means of achieving effective output stabilization without …

… Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams Athanasios Orphanides is an adviser in the
division of monetary affairs of the Federal Reserve Board. John C. Williams is a senior vice …