TY - JOUR T1 - The Presidential Term JF - The Journal of Portfolio Management SP - 135 LP - 142 DO - 10.3905/jpm.2008.701624 VL - 34 IS - 2 AU - Scott B. Beyer AU - Gerald R. Jensen AU - Robert R. Johnson Y1 - 2008/01/31 UR - https://pm-research.com/content/34/2/135.abstract N2 - Is there a relation between security returns and the year of a U.S. president's term? The answer is yes. There is a prominent pattern in stock returns that relates to the presidential term. Equities have generally prospered in the second half of a president's term, especially during the third year. Further analysis reveals that monetary policy actions correspond with the identified return pattern—Fed policy has generally been significantly more accommodative during the third year of a president's term. The evidence overall strongly suggests that investors should carefully monitor the actions of policymakers and the political calendar before they make investment decisions.TOPICS: Financial crises and financial market history, fixed-income portfolio management, in markets ER -