TY - JOUR T1 - Cognitive Biases in Market Forecasts JF - The Journal of Portfolio Management SP - 72 LP - 81 DO - 10.3905/jpm.2000.319785 VL - 27 IS - 1 AU - Kenneth L. Fisher AU - Meir Statman Y1 - 2000/10/31 UR - https://pm-research.com/content/27/1/72.abstract N2 - Will the DJIA soar to 36,000 or plummet to 3,600? The desire to know the future is so strong that it blinds us to the fallibility of forecasts. The authors find that P/E ratios and dividend yields provide no help in forecasting one or two–year stock returns, and even ten–year forecasts are far from reliable. They trace the belief that P/E ratios and dividend yields provide reliable forecasts of returns to cognitive errors and discuss statistical and organizational remedies. ER -