RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Cognitive Biases in Market Forecasts JF The Journal of Portfolio Management FD Institutional Investor Journals SP 72 OP 81 DO 10.3905/jpm.2000.319785 VO 27 IS 1 A1 Kenneth L. Fisher A1 Meir Statman YR 2000 UL https://pm-research.com/content/27/1/72.abstract AB Will the DJIA soar to 36,000 or plummet to 3,600? The desire to know the future is so strong that it blinds us to the fallibility of forecasts. The authors find that P/E ratios and dividend yields provide no help in forecasting one or two–year stock returns, and even ten–year forecasts are far from reliable. They trace the belief that P/E ratios and dividend yields provide reliable forecasts of returns to cognitive errors and discuss statistical and organizational remedies.