PT - JOURNAL ARTICLE AU - Kenneth L. Fisher AU - Meir Statman TI - Cognitive Biases in Market Forecasts AID - 10.3905/jpm.2000.319785 DP - 2000 Oct 31 TA - The Journal of Portfolio Management PG - 72--81 VI - 27 IP - 1 4099 - https://pm-research.com/content/27/1/72.short 4100 - https://pm-research.com/content/27/1/72.full AB - Will the DJIA soar to 36,000 or plummet to 3,600? The desire to know the future is so strong that it blinds us to the fallibility of forecasts. The authors find that P/E ratios and dividend yields provide no help in forecasting one or two–year stock returns, and even ten–year forecasts are far from reliable. They trace the belief that P/E ratios and dividend yields provide reliable forecasts of returns to cognitive errors and discuss statistical and organizational remedies.