PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Clifford S. Asness
AU  - Jacques A. Friedman
AU  - Robert J. Krail
AU  - John M. Liew
TI  - Style Timing
AID  - 10.3905/jpm.2000.319724
DP  - 2000 Apr 30
TA  - The Journal of Portfolio Management
PG  - 50--60
VI  - 26
IP  - 3
4099  - https://pm-research.com/content/26/3/50.short
4100  - https://pm-research.com/content/26/3/50.full
AB  - Both academic and industry research supports the long–term efficacy of value strategies are far from riskless, however. They can have long periods of poor performance. In an effort to improve upon these strategies, the authors have tried to forecast these returns with mixed results. Most of these “style timing” models re based on macroeconomic factors. The authors take a different approach considering two simple factors: 1) the spread in valuation multiples between a value portfolio and a growth portfolio (the value spread), and 2) the spread in expected earnings growth between a growth portfolio and a value portfolio (the earnings growth spread). They find that the greater the value spread and the smaller the earnings growth spread, the better their forecast for value versus growth going forward. These results are statistically and economically strong.