RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Rewarding Fundamentals JF The Journal of Portfolio Management FD Institutional Investor Journals SP 71 OP 76 DO 10.3905/jpm.2010.36.4.071 VO 36 IS 4 A1 Eric H. Sorensen A1 Sanjoy Ghosh YR 2010 UL https://pm-research.com/content/36/4/71.abstract AB Over the decades there has been an ubiquitous fixation on earnings power, earnings momentum, earnings announcements, earnings surprises, and the like. The clear explanation is that stock valuations and prices are impacted by earnings changes more than any other phenomenon. Sorensen and Ghosh analyze the hypothetical value of accurate (perfect) earnings forecasting over the past 20 years with lead horizons of 3 to 15 months. The returns for top-quintile stocks ranked by positive earnings relative to forecasts are consistently higher than bottom-quintile stocks that posted earnings below ex ante expectations. The return differentials are extraordinary, consistent over the years, larger with longer forecast horizons, and larger for stocks with tighter ex ante forecasts.TOPICS: Theory, equity portfolio management