%0 Journal Article %A Jean-Guy Simonato %T Maximizing the Probability to Reach the Goal: An Exploration Exercise in Goal-Based Wealth Management %D 2023 %R 10.3905/jpm.2023.1.469 %J The Journal of Portfolio Management %P jpm.2023.1.469 %X Goal-based wealth management (GBWM) is a portfolio approach in which the investor associates risk with the probability of not attaining a financial goal. Using several datasets, the author examines the performance of a multiperiod GBWM strategy that maximizes the probability of achieving a financial goal. With varying restrictions about leverage and short sales, he compares the goal-based wealth investor with a standard and a goal-attentive mean–variance investor. Without transaction costs, the results suggest that, in terms of goal achievement, a goal-based wealth investor focusing on the probability of reaching a goal does better than a standard mean–variance investor. Compared to a goal-attentive mean–variance investor, the results still favor the goal-based wealth investor but to a lesser extent. With transaction costs, goal-based wealth and goal-attentive mean–variance investors yield similar results in many cases. %U https://jpm.pm-research.com/content/iijpormgmt/early/2023/02/06/jpm.2023.1.469.full.pdf