%0 Journal Article %A Rob Arnott %A Omid Shakernia %T How Transitory Is Inflation? %D 2023 %R 10.3905/jpm.2023.1.468 %J The Journal of Portfolio Management %P jpm.2023.1.468 %X Inflation can take far longer to return to normal levels than most realize. Although transitory inflation is possible, it is hardly a sensible central expectation. Across 14 developed-economy countries over the past half-century, the authors analyze the behavior of inflation once a country’s inflation rate surges past various thresholds and study how long a burst of inflation typically lingers. If history is a guide, inflation can take far longer to return to normal levels than most people realize. Transitory inflation is certainly possible, but it is hardly a sensible central expectation. Messaging and policy response from the US Federal Reserve Bank should reflect the relatively high empirical risk that inflation may persist. %U https://jpm.pm-research.com/content/iijpormgmt/early/2023/02/04/jpm.2023.1.468.full.pdf