TY - JOUR T1 - Scenario-Driven Adaptation to Emergent Risks JF - The Journal of Portfolio Management DO - 10.3905/jpm.2022.1.419 SP - jpm.2022.1.419 AU - Julian N. Abdey AU - Jared S. Franz AU - Wesley K. Phoa Y1 - 2022/09/08 UR - https://pm-research.com/content/early/2022/09/07/jpm.2022.1.419.abstract N2 - In order to be resilient to unmodeled risks, an investment management process needs to incorporate a discipline of continuous scenario analysis. The authors describe the essential elements of such a discipline: key organizational and operating principles, the scenario building process, quantitative specification of scenarios, and application to portfolio management. They illustrate with several recent case studies: the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2021–2022 surge in global inflation, and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. They also list some potential pitfalls of scenario analysis. ER -