PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Rui Chen
AU  - Zhennan Gao
AU  - Xueyong Zhang
TI  - Return Predictability: <em>Evidence from the US–China Supply Chain</em>
AID  - 10.3905/jpm.2019.45.4.143
DP  - 2019 Mar 31
TA  - The Journal of Portfolio Management
PG  - 143--151
VI  - 45
IP  - 4
4099  - https://pm-research.com/content/45/4/143.short
4100  - https://pm-research.com/content/45/4/143.full
AB  - In this article, by investigating return predictability across a transnational supply chain, the authors present new evidence supporting the hypothesis that value-relevant information diffuses gradually in financial markets because of limited attention from investors. They find that the corresponding trading strategy delivers superior abnormal return. Using a sample of supply chains between Chinese customers and US suppliers from 2009 to 2015 and corresponding financial and return data, the authors show that Chinese customer returns can predict US supplier future return at the firm level. A long–short portfolio strategy based on these findings yields significant abnormal monthly returns of 2.179% (equal-weighted portfolio) in the Fama–French five-factor model. The authors also employ Fama–MacBeth regression analysis and propensity score matching–matched sample analysis, and the conclusions continue to hold.TOPICS: Security analysis and valuation, factor-based models, performance measurement, emerging