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Industry Winners and Losers in a Lower-Carbon Economy: A Structural Model

Debarshi Basu, Gerald T. Garvey, Shuangzi Guo and Ryan Zamani
The Journal of Portfolio Management Novel Risks 2023, jpm.2023.1.480; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2023.1.480
Debarshi Basu
is the head of quantitative research at BlackRock Sustainable in New York, NY, USA
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Gerald T. Garvey
is the head of sustainability research at Blackrock Systematic in San Francisco, CA, USA
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Shuangzi Guo
is quantitative researcher and portfolio manager with BlackRock Systematic Mid-Horizon in London, UK
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Ryan Zamani
is a portfolio manager with BlackRock Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions New York, NY, USA
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Abstract

The authors model a viable low-carbon economy using global input-output tables along with emissions data for 54 industries in 57 countries. Some high-emitting industries such as air transport and retailing support a wide range of otherwise low-carbon goods and services and are predicted to fare well. Apparently green industries such as health care and banks appear more vulnerable because of their reliance on high-emission sectors such as construction. To test the model, the authors use high historical energy prices to proxy more stringent carbon regulation. Industries that their model classifies as resilient perform well, whereas industries that are commonly viewed as green significantly underperform in the face of high energy costs.

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The Journal of Portfolio Management: 49 (4)
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Industry Winners and Losers in a Lower-Carbon Economy: A Structural Model
Debarshi Basu, Gerald T. Garvey, Shuangzi Guo, Ryan Zamani
The Journal of Portfolio Management Mar 2023, jpm.2023.1.480; DOI: 10.3905/jpm.2023.1.480

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Industry Winners and Losers in a Lower-Carbon Economy: A Structural Model
Debarshi Basu, Gerald T. Garvey, Shuangzi Guo, Ryan Zamani
The Journal of Portfolio Management Mar 2023, jpm.2023.1.480; DOI: 10.3905/jpm.2023.1.480
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • MODEL: A THREE-SECTOR EXAMPLE
    • DATA AND CALIBRATION
    • A TEST IN US EQUITIES: RESILIENCE TO ENERGY PRICES
    • CONCLUSION
    • APPENDIX A
    • APPENDIX B
    • APPENDIX C
    • ENDNOTES
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