Navigating Stock Price Crashes

Abstract

Individual equity securities are prone to large and abrupt stock price drops. In this article, the authors provide a framework for measuring, forecasting, and avoiding such stock price crashes. First, the authors identify the events that most frequently cause stock prices to crash, and then they construct a parsimonious model for forecasting stock price crashes. Finally, they examine how positioning a portfolio to reduce exposure to stocks with high crash risk can improve investment performance. This article provides a framework that should help investors construct equity portfolios with fewer stock price crashes, higher returns, and lower volatility.