Lifecycle Goal Achievement or Portfolio Volatility Reduction?

Abstract

This article is concerned with the use of currently available technology to offer individuals, financial advisors, and pension fund financial planners detailed prospective financial plans tailored to an individual’s financial goals and obligations. By taking account of all an individual’s prospective cash flows, including servicing current liabilities, and simultaneously optimizing prospective spending, saving, asset allocation, tax, and insurance, etc. using dynamic stochastic optimization, the authors compare the results of their goal-based fully dynamic strategy with the financial advisory industry’s representative current best practices. These include piecemeal fixed-allocation portfolios for specific goals, target-date retirement funds, and fixed real-income post-retirement financial products, all using Markowitz mean-variance optimization based on the very general goal of minimizing portfolio volatility for a specific portfolio expected return over a finite horizon. Making use of the same data and marketcalibrated Monte Carlo stochastic simulation for all the alternative portfolio strategies, the authors find that flexibility is of key importance for both individual portfolio and spending decisions. The authors measure superiority by the certainty-equivalent increase in expected utility of individual lifetime consumption (gamma) and the extra initial capital required by an individual to put the dominated strategy on the same expected-utility footing as the optimal dynamic strategy (initial capital gap). They find that the adaptive dynamic goal-based portfolio strategy’s performance is far superior to all the industry’s Markowitz-based approaches. These empirical results should put paid to the commonly held view that the extra complexity of holistic dynamic stochastic models is not worth the marginal extra value obtained from their use.

TOPICS: Portfolio construction, analysis of individual factors/risk premia, VAR and use of alternative risk measures of trading risk, volatility measures