Click to login and read the full article.
Don’t have access? Click here to request a demo
Alternatively, Call a member of the team to discuss membership options
US and Overseas: +1 646-931-9045
EMEA: +44 0207 139 1600
Abstract
Reasonable expectations for capital markets returns are the foundation on which all investment programs are built. The model used to develop these critical expectations does not need to be complex. Rather, inspired by Sir William of Occam’s Law of Parsimony, the authors review a model for developing reasonable expectations that was first articulated in a 1991 issue of The Journal of Portfolio Management. The model is simple and intuitive. The authors describe its effectiveness over the 25 years since the model was first applied and provide their view on reasonable expectations for stock and bond market returns in the decade ahead. They close by discussing the model’s implications for investors and the financial sector.
TOPICS: Factor-based models, simulations
- © 2015 Pageant Media Ltd
Don’t have access? Click here to request a demo
Alternatively, Call a member of the team to discuss membership options
US and Overseas: +1 646-931-9045
UK: 0207 139 1600
Log in using your username and password
In this issue
Jump to section
- Article
- Abstract
- ENTERPRISE AND SPECULATION
- QUANTIFYING THE SOURCES OF STOCK RETURNS
- A QUARTER-CENTURY OF ACTUAL RESULTS
- A TOUGH OPENING DECADE
- A CENTURY-LONG EVALUATION OF THE BSRM/S
- WARNING: LIMITED ACADEMIC SUPPORT FOR BSRM/S
- FROM STOCKS TO BONDS
- WHAT’S AHEAD FOR STOCKS AND BONDS
- CAUTION: FEW INVESTORS CAPTURE (OR EXCEED) THE MARKETS’ RETURNS
- A REASONABLE ALTERNATIVE
- CHALLENGE ONE TO BSRM/S: WHAT ABOUT THE EQUITY PREMIUM?
- CHALLENGE TWO TO BSRM/S: WHAT ABOUT SHARE BUYBACKS?
- SOME BENEFITS OF THE BSRM
- IMPLICATIONS OF THE BSRM FOR MONEY MANAGERS AND INVESTORS
- THE NEW MUTUAL FUND INDUSTRY
- Appendix
- ENDNOTES
- REFERENCES
- Info & Metrics
Similar Articles
Cited By...
- The Best of Both Worlds: Forecasting US Equity Market Returns Using a Hybrid Machine Learning-Time Series Approach
- Setting Realistic Goals for Personal Retirement Planning via Micro-Macro Analyses
- A Factor- and Goal-Driven Model for Defined Benefit Pensions: Setting Realistic Benefits
- Improving U.S. Stock Return Forecasts: A "Fair-Value" CAPE Approach
- An Overview of the State and Local Government Pension/OPEB Landscape
- Two Types of Factors: A Return Decomposition for Factor Portfolios
- Identifying Economic Regimes: Reducing Downside * Risks for University Endowments and Foundations