Click to login and read the full article.
Don’t have access? Click here to request a demo
Alternatively, Call a member of the team to discuss membership options
US and Overseas: +1 646-931-9045
EMEA: +44 0207 139 1600
Abstract
The empirical evidence presented in this article suggested that it is potentially possible for an informed trader in after-hours trading to earn abnormal returns from identifying and investing in stocks with a positive earnings surprise. The strategy is based on a simple (naïve) moving average time series forecast of earnings, conditional on the moving average forecast and the last analyst s forecast both being positive, and with the former being larger than the latter. These are likely firms that have been either subject to aggressive downward earning guidance or just firms for which analysts have become less favorably inclined about earnings prospects. These findings should prove useful to informed investors who trade or construct portfolios based on the information in earnings surprises.
TOPICS: Exchange-traded funds and applications, technical analysis, statistical methods
- © 2014 Pageant Media Ltd
Don’t have access? Click here to request a demo
Alternatively, Call a member of the team to discuss membership options
US and Overseas: +1 646-931-9045
UK: 0207 139 1600