Is the 60–40 Stock–Bond Pension Fund Rule Wise?

Abstract

Pension funds typically suggest the 60–40 stock–bond rule to lower risk, as bonds tend to rise during stock market declines. However, U.S. investment returns have depended on the presidential party in power, and returns in the last two years of all administrations exceed those in the first two years. The strategies using small-cap stocks with Democrats and intermediate bonds or large-cap stocks with Republicans yields final wealth of about six times the large–cap index, 50% more than small caps and more than twenty times the 60–40 mix since 1942.