DTS^SM (Duration Times Spread)

Abstract

Duration Times Spread (DTSSM) is a new measure of spread exposure for corporate bond portfolios. It is based on a detailed analysis of credit spread behavior. Changes in spreads are not parallel but rather linearly proportional to the level of spread, in that bonds trading at wider spreads experience greater spread changes. Consequently, systematic spread volatility of a sector is proportional to its spread; similarly, the idiosyncratic spread volatility of a particular bond or issuer is proportional to its spread, whatever the sector, maturity, or time period. Tests confirm that the behavior of spreads makes excess return volatility proportional to DTS. DTS has advantages over measures commonly used (such as spread duration) to forecast excess return volatility or construct portfolios, affecting the formulation of investment constraints, asset allocation, risk modeling, and performance attribution.

TOPICS: Portfolio construction, statistical methods, fixed income and structured finance