Stand-Alone Centers Occupied by Big-Box Retailers

Abstract

Investments in stand-alone centers occupied by big-box retailers do poorly as a hedge against changes in the variables that generally matter to institutional investors. The reason is structural. Big-box retailer leases often include a go-dark option allowing the retail tenant to vacate its space before expiration of the lease. This tends to occur under high inflation (and hence the big-box retailer cash flow growth rate is high) and under high uncertainty, exactly the conditions under which institutional investors most need high returns