The Backward Art of Investing Money

Abstract

Each passing decade of new Wall Street experience, the statistical record shows, confirms rather than denies the verdict that few investors can beat the market. Yes, most investors and their advisors are irrationally inefficient, but this in no way guarantees investors can thereby profit from a micro-inefficient market. Economic history confirms that markets are much more macro-inefficient than they are micro-inefficient. Neither Wall Street nor its clients understand nuances of the time-horizon problem. And, if (when?) lobbyist-driven politics let us manage some of our own Social Security funds, the odds are a hundred-to-one that the retirement nest eggs we achieve will fall materially below what broad inexpensive indexing could deliver in terms of diversified risk-corrected total returns.